The Michigan Battle Rages On!

Posted on February 28, 2012 by

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With Super Tuesday nearing, the Republican race is heating up. Santorum has now become a top contender and is trailing on Romney’s heels. Social media has played an increasingly important role in the race to the White House. The party continues to be divided idealogically with Romney and Santorum deeply divided on religous, educational and social issues. With the Michigan and Arizona primaries currently occuring, Romney has received valuable endorsements from governors in  both states. Therefore, the question becomes how important is a gubernatorial endorsement? What role does social media play in swaying the voters? This a question that cannot be readily answered as the effect of social media will ultimately be determined along with other social issues raised by each candidate.

With the Michigan Primary currently underway, and Santorum and Romney in a fierce battle, the New York Times, listed several reasons why the race is too close to call:

There are about eight plausible explanations for what might have caused it:

1. Mr. Santorum has the better closing message. His campaign has been more positively oriented, although not uniformly so.

2. Voters are rallying to his side after he took some harsh treatment in news media coverage.

3. His voters are more enthusiastic and starting to come home as likely voter models become more accurate.

4. Mr. Santorum is picking up support from Newt Gingrich supporters who have concluded that Mr. Gingrich is not viable.

5. A set of minor gaffes by Mr. Romney, related to the staging of his Ford Field speech and a remark he made about Nascar, hurt him at the margins, as well as the fact that he took part of Sunday away from the campaign trail to attend the Daytona 500.

6. Mr. Romney had some temporary momentum from last week’s debate — in my view it was a “win” for Mr. Romney but not an overwhelming one — which has since evaporated.

7. Mr. Santorum, whose “super PAC” bought a fair amount of advertising inventory in Michigan about a week ago, has equalized the advertising gap in the closing days of the campaign, having been disadvantaged by it before.

8. Mr. Santorum is benefiting from Democrats, some of whom are crossing over to vote in an effort to create chaos in the primary, and some of whom are responding to robocalls that were placed by Mr. Santorum’s campaign.

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